Serbia Mining development projections until 2030

The “Strategy of Mineral Resources Management in the Republic of Serbia until 2030” has analyzed mineral raw materials, whose production, preparation, processing, product finishing and so on, are of importance to the development of our country and of a certain influence on European and global market as well. It is estimated that by 2020, lithium from Serbia will make up over 10 % of the world production and over 90 % of European production.

For the time being, this is the only mineral resource in our country that will have some impact on the global market. By the aforementioned analysis, it was concluded that antimony, phosphates, borates and fluorspars would be of importance not only for the local market, but for the European market as well (more than 10%), while production of copper, nickel, lead and zinc would primarily be important for the development of the Republic of Serbia, with shares of up to 5% on the European market. Energy mineral raw materials in our country are primarily important for the supply of the local market, both for electricity generation and production of petroleum products.

In analyzing mineral resources department development as a whole, three development options came up: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic, and on that occasion, the realistic conditions for the development prospect were discussed. Certain assumed parameters were used as a starting point for all options, so the conclusions are as follows:

As for the pessimistic development option, the estimate of income from the mining industry amounts to 2.9 billion dollars, with energy mineral raw materials share (lignite, brown coal, oil, natural gas and geothermal energy) amounting to 65.5% of the total income, metallic mineral raw materials share (copper, lithium, lead and zinc) of about 23%, non-metallic industrial mineral resources (magnesites, cement raw materials and lime and boron minerals) 8.8% and non-metallic mineral raw materials (brick and ceramic clay, TGK and AGK etc.) 2.7%.

When it comes to realistic development option, the estimate of income from the mining industry amounts to 3.7 billion dollars, until 2020, with share of energy mineral raw materials (lignite, brown coal, oil, natural gas, geothermal energy and oil shales) approximately 68% of the total income, metallic mineral raw materials share (copper, lithium, lead, zinc and nickel) of about 22.1%, non-metallic industrial mineral resources (magnesites, cement raw materials and lime, phosphates and boron metals) 7.6% and non-metallic mineral raw materials (brick and ceramic clay, TGK and AGK etc.) 2.3%.

When it comes to optimistic development option, the estimate of income from the mining industry amounts to 4.7 billion dollars, with share of energy mineral raw materials (lignite, brown coal, oil, natural gas, geothermal energy and oil shales) approximately 64.5% of the total income, metallic mineral raw materials share (copper, lithium, lead, zinc, molybdenum, antimony and nickel) of about 27.1%, non-metallic industrial mineral resources (magnesites, cement raw materials and lime, phosphates and boron metals) 6.1% and non-metallic mineral raw materials (brick and ceramic clay, TGK and AGK etc.) 2.1%.

According to these analyses and growth estimate of 5.8%, the GDP will amount to 69 billion dollars in our country by 2020. The mining industry share according to pessimistic option of the development of mineral resources department will make 4.2% of GDP, in realistic option 5.5%, while in the optimistic option it will make about 6.9 % of GDP.