South America is fast becoming the safest and most politically viable region for Western countries seeking to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China, according to a new report by Verisk Maplecroft.
The study comes amid growing US and allied efforts to secure lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements, driven by concerns over technology dependence, supply-chain resilience, and geopolitics. Recent initiatives include the US expanding its strategic stockpiles and a 55-country push to establish a preferential critical minerals trade bloc.
Andean Advantage: Low-Risk Mineral Producers
Verisk Maplecroft assessed 10 emerging markets using its Resource Nationalism Index and Political Risk Data. The analysis highlights Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru as combining large mineral reserves with comparatively moderate levels of state intervention and political risk. By contrast, countries such as DR Congo, Indonesia, and Tanzania sit among the highest-risk jurisdictions globally.
“What differentiates South America is not just the scale of reserves, but the distribution of risk,” said Jimena Blanco, chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “Producers consistently combine large endowments of tech-critical minerals with manageable levels of resource nationalism and political instability.” The report rates the region’s risk-adjusted opportunity as distinctly favourable, while acknowledging that certain minerals will still require engagement with higher-risk jurisdictions.
Strategic Moves by Western Governments
South America’s stability is reflected in ongoing Western initiatives:
- The US Strategic Minerals Cooperation Framework with DR Congo (launched December 2025)
- The EU-India free trade agreement, partly linked to rare earth ambitions
- Negotiations between the US and Brazil to develop critical mineral processing capabilities, particularly in heavy rare earths
According to US Assistant Secretary of State Caleb Orr, these agreements aim to strengthen long-term supply chain resilience. Notably, Serra Verde Group in Brazil has offered the US a stake in its operations as part of a financing deal, signaling deeper strategic collaboration.
Managing Political and Resource Risk
While South America offers relatively stable conditions, Verisk Maplecroft notes that medium-risk exposure persists across some mineral sectors. Other producers—such as India, DR Congo, and Indonesia—combine political volatility with assertive government control, increasing the likelihood of export restrictions, state ownership, or local value-addition requirements.
“Securing tech-critical minerals is no longer just an economic challenge,” Blanco said. “The race will be won not by eliminating risk, but by managing it better than competitors.”
Geopolitical Alignment Favors the West
The report also examined countries’ geopolitical alignment, factoring in UN voting, trade agreements, and security ties. Findings indicate:
- Argentina and the Philippines are close US allies
- Chile, Madagascar, and India show strategic alignment
- Peru and Indonesia remain broadly neutral
- Brazil, Tanzania, and DR Congo lean away from Washington
This combination of resource abundance, manageable political risk, and pro-Western alignment positions South America as a central hub for Western diversification strategies in critical minerals.
