Peruvian copper mine production is expected to grow modestly in the short term until 2027, with a significant increase projected starting in 2028. As the world’s second-largest copper producer after Chile, Peru’s copper output is forecasted to rise by only 0.6% in 2024 due to disruptions such as blockades and adverse weather conditions.
For example, MMG’s Chalcobamba pit at the Las Bambas mine faced a blockade by local indigenous communities, which was resolved on April 11. Consequently, the Las Bambas mine’s copper production in the first quarter of 2024 fell by 4% compared to the same period in 2023, influenced by lower ore grades and unfavorable weather.
However, the commencement of Aluminum Corporation of China’s Toromocho Expansion project this year, with an annual output of 75kt of copper and a mine life of 24 years, is set to offset these declines. Additionally, increased production from Toquepala, Cuajone, Quellaveco, and Antamina mines will further boost output. Combined production from these mines rose to 280kt in the first quarter of 2024, up from 238.2kt in the same period in 2023, contributing to a 3.6% year-on-year increase in overall Peruvian copper mine production.
Looking ahead, production is anticipated to rise modestly until 2027 before a sharp increase from 2028. This growth will be driven by new projects such as Canariaco Norte, Chalcobamba, Trapiche, and Antilla, as well as the ramp-up of Toromocho Expansion, Tia Maria, and Zafranal projects. Peru’s copper mine production is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8%, reaching 3,262.8kt by 2030.
