Europe’s drive to build a low-carbon, digitally connected economy is increasingly colliding with a less visible challenge: the availability of critical raw materials. While investment continues to accelerate in renewable energy, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, hydrogen production and data centres, the supply chains for many of the specialist metals underpinning these technologies are expanding far more slowly.
According to the German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) in its Raw Materials for Future Technologies 2026 report, the greatest industrial risk over the coming decades may not be technological innovation itself, but the ability to secure reliable supplies of the minerals required to manufacture next-generation equipment.
Prepared by Fraunhofer ISI and Fraunhofer IZM, the study evaluates more than 200 emerging technologies, selecting 34 key technologies for detailed analysis. Rather than forecasting commodity markets, the report compares projected annual raw material demand in 2045 with actual global production levels recorded in 2023, providing a stress test of the mining and processing capacity needed to support Europe’s industrial transformation.
Specialist metals emerge as the weakest link
The report concludes that the most severe supply constraints are unlikely to arise in the largest commodity markets but in small, highly concentrated specialist-metal sectors, where production is limited, processing is geographically concentrated and many metals are recovered only as by-products of other mining operations. Among the most striking examples is iridium, a platinum-group metal that plays a crucial role in proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers used to produce renewable hydrogen.
Under DERA’s most ambitious Sustainability Transformation scenario, annual iridium demand could reach 85 tonnes by 2045—approximately 12.5 times total global production recorded in 2023. Unlike bulk commodities, iridium cannot easily be produced through standalone mining operations because it is recovered primarily during platinum mining and refining, making rapid production growth particularly difficult.
Lithium demand continues to outpace supply growth
The report identifies lithium as one of the most strategically exposed battery materials. Demand generated by future technologies could approach 950,000 tonnes annually by 2045, representing roughly 4.7 times global mine production recorded in 2023.
Although lithium mining capacity continues to expand worldwide, DERA argues that the pace of battery manufacturing, electric vehicle production and stationary energy storage deployment is progressing faster than upstream mining and refining capacity. The challenge extends beyond mining. Europe continues to face limited domestic capability to convert lithium concentrates into battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, leaving manufacturers dependent on international refining networks.
Rare earths and scandium present additional strategic risks
The report also identifies significant future shortages for several rare earth elements and scandium, both of which play important roles in advanced manufacturing. Projected demand for dysprosium and terbium, essential components in high-performance permanent magnets, could exceed 7,100 tonnes annually, more than double current global production.
These heavy rare earth elements are indispensable for:
- electric vehicle motors;
- offshore wind turbines;
- industrial motors;
- heat pumps;
- air-conditioning systems.
Meanwhile, scandium demand could increase to around 50 tonnes annually, approximately 2.6 times today’s production, driven by applications in solid oxide fuel cells, electrolysers and lightweight aluminium alloys. Unlike more established industrial metals, scandium lacks a deep commercial market and is typically recovered as a secondary product from nickel, titanium, uranium and rare earth processing, making supply expansion particularly challenging.
Battery chemistry changes shift, rather than eliminate, raw material risks
DERA notes that advances in battery chemistry are changing the mix of critical minerals required, but not removing supply risks altogether. The growing adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries reduces dependence on nickel and cobalt, yet continues to require substantial quantities of lithium and graphite. Similarly, high-nickel battery chemistries lower cobalt consumption while increasing exposure to high-purity nickel supply.
Emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries and silicon-rich anodes may eventually improve energy density and performance, but many designs still rely heavily on lithium, meaning demand for the metal is expected to remain strong regardless of future battery chemistry developments. Graphite demand from the technologies assessed could rise to approximately 2.3 million tonnes annually by 2045, while cobalt demand could reach around 260,000 tonnes, equivalent to approximately 1.3 times current global mine production.
Stationary storage broadens mineral demand
Stationary energy storage offers greater flexibility than electric vehicles because weight and energy density are less restrictive. This allows multiple battery chemistries—including LFP, sodium-ion and vanadium redox-flow batteries—to compete across different applications. Diversification does not eliminate raw material dependence.
For example, widespread deployment of vanadium redox-flow batteries could increase annual vanadium demand from future technologies to approximately 74,000 tonnes, compared with global production of roughly 100,000 tonnes in 2023. DERA suggests that long-term leasing and recycling of vanadium electrolytes could significantly reduce future primary metal demand by treating the electrolyte as reusable infrastructure rather than a consumable material.
Hydrogen expansion depends on solving the iridium challenge
Hydrogen production represents one of the clearest examples of technology being constrained by raw material availability. PEM electrolysers are favoured because they respond rapidly to variable renewable electricity while producing high-purity hydrogen. They rely heavily on iridium catalysts.
Even under DERA’s more conservative Development Barriers scenario, future iridium demand would still greatly exceed present production levels. The report concludes that future hydrogen expansion will depend on several parallel developments:
- reducing catalyst loading;
- improving electrolyser efficiency;
- increasing recovery from end-of-life equipment;
- developing alternative electrolyser technologies.
Without these advances, announced hydrogen production capacity may prove difficult to realise at commercial scale.
Artificial intelligence creates another wave of specialist-metal demand
DERA also highlights the rapidly growing resource footprint associated with artificial intelligence and expanding digital infrastructure.
AI relies on physical assets including:
- semiconductor manufacturing;
- high-performance processors;
- fibre-optic networks;
- electricity transmission;
- backup power systems;
- cooling equipment;
- large-scale data centres.
Under the report’s Rapid Growth scenario, demand for several specialist metals rises sharply.
Projected annual demand includes:
- 380 tonnes of platinum, more than twice 2023 production;
- 330 tonnes of germanium, approximately 1.6 times current production;
- 250 tonnes of gallium;
- 2,300 tonnes of tantalum;
- 140 tonnes of rhenium.
Many of these metals are recovered as by-products from zinc, bauxite and other mining operations, meaning expanding supply requires investment not only in mining but also in downstream refining and recovery facilities.
Copper remains the backbone of electrification
While specialist metals dominate many supply concerns, copper remains the single most important industrial metal supporting Europe’s energy transition. DERA estimates that future technologies alone could require between 11 and 14 million tonnes of copper annually by 2045, equivalent to roughly 50–60% of global mine production recorded in 2023.
This demand comes from multiple sectors simultaneously, including:
- electricity transmission;
- renewable power generation;
- electric vehicles;
- battery manufacturing;
- data centres;
- heat pumps;
- industrial motors.
Unlike iridium or scandium, copper benefits from a large and geographically diversified market. Its challenge lies in the long lead times, rising capital costs, declining ore grades and increasingly complex permitting requirements associated with developing new mines.
Renewable energy expansion intensifies demand across multiple commodities
The report demonstrates that wind and solar energy development creates demand across a broad range of industrial metals.
Wind turbines require large quantities of:
- steel;
- copper;
- aluminium;
- concrete;
- composite materials;
- rare earth magnets in many drivetrain designs.
Offshore wind installations are particularly material-intensive because of subsea cables, foundations and offshore substations. Solar photovoltaic systems primarily consume silicon, silver, copper and aluminium, while thin-film technologies introduce additional demand for indium, gallium, selenium and tellurium. Although manufacturers continue reducing silver usage per solar panel, rapidly expanding installation volumes are expected to offset many of these efficiency gains.
Processing capacity becomes Europe’s strategic advantage
DERA argues that Europe’s industrial strategy must extend beyond opening new mines. Many critical materials—including gallium, germanium, indium, rhenium, scandium and several platinum-group metals—are produced through recovery from existing metallurgical processes rather than standalone mining operations.
This creates new opportunities for Europe’s established metallurgical regions and neighbouring countries. Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro possess combinations of copper, zinc, nickel, lead, bauxite and polymetallic resources, together with existing processing facilities, engineering expertise and industrial infrastructure that could support expanded recovery of strategic by-products.
Future competitiveness may increasingly depend on:
- recovering critical metals from concentrates, tailings and industrial residues;
- expanding refining capacity;
- producing battery-grade and semiconductor-grade materials;
- integrating processing with European manufacturing supply chains.
Recycling will support—but not replace—primary mining
Circular economy initiatives will become increasingly important as technologies mature. DERA notes that recycling alone cannot satisfy rapidly growing demand during the early decades of the energy transition. Electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, electrolysers and solar panels remain in service for many years before becoming available for recycling.
In the near term, manufacturing scrap, industrial residues, spent catalysts and electronic waste represent the most significant secondary raw material sources. Future recovery rates will also depend heavily on product design. Technologies that incorporate easily recoverable components will provide far greater recycling potential than products containing highly dispersed specialist metals.
Raw material security becomes central to Europe’s industrial future
DERA’s findings suggest that Europe’s technology transition is increasingly becoming a question of resource security rather than engineering capability. The continent possesses the expertise to manufacture advanced batteries, electrolysers, renewable energy systems, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure.
The greater challenge lies in ensuring reliable access to the mining, processing, refining and recycling capacity needed to supply the specialist metals that underpin those industries. As Europe accelerates investment in clean energy and digital technologies, the greatest competitive advantage may no longer lie in building more factories alone, but in strengthening the upstream critical minerals value chain that makes large-scale industrial deployment possible.
