London – Europe’s efforts to secure critical minerals for military and industrial use face a growing threat, as tensions in the Gulf of Hormuz expose vulnerabilities in global supply chains.
Michael Wurmser, founder of London-based mining services firm Norge Mineraler, warns that Europe’s reliance on imports leaves the continent exposed. Sulphur, a key input for copper and cobalt extraction, is particularly at risk. “While Brent crude dominates headlines, the second- and third-order effects on critical minerals are equally consequential,” Wurmser says.
Currently, the Gulf provides around 25% of global sulphur supply, largely as a byproduct of oil refining. Since the conflict in Iran began, sulphur prices have surged 25% recently and are 165% higher year-on-year. Shipping constraints and the selective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz further limit availability.
Europe’s 2030 ‘10-40-50’ Plan Falls Short
The EU’s 10-40-50 plan aims for:
- 10% extraction of Europe’s mineral needs
- 40% refining within the continent
- 25% recycling
Wurmser argues that this is insufficient to meet strategic requirements:
“Europe must look inwards. Minerals such as phosphorus, lithium, manganese, graphite, and copper lie beneath our soil in abundance. Our current approach is disparate at best, potentially negligent at worst.”
The Case for Vertical Integration
Since the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, global supply chains have proven fragile. Wurmser stresses the need for vertically integrated supply chains: from extraction to processing to end-use, especially in defence and food production. “Scrambling for scarce resources on the global market is neither an economic nor a security strategy. Europe must invest in domestic extraction and refining to insulate itself from future disruptions.”
Economic and Security Implications
Failure to act risks:
- Billions in lost tax revenue
- Millions of tonnes of untapped minerals
- Rising prices due to Iran’s influence over the Hormuz corridor
Wurmser concludes that Europe’s industrial and military future depends on reclaiming control over the resources beneath its soil, not just relying on global markets.
