The United States is investing heavily in building a domestic lithium industry to strengthen supply chains for electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage systems, and clean energy technologies. However, a new study from Northwestern University suggests that one critical resource may stand in the way of those ambitions: water.
According to the research, many of the proposed lithium mining projects across the United States are located in regions already facing significant water stress. As climate change intensifies drought conditions and competition for water grows among households, agriculture, industry, and power generation, future lithium production could face major operational challenges.
The findings raise important questions about whether the U.S. can successfully expand domestic lithium output without placing additional strain on increasingly fragile water resources.
The Strategic Importance of Domestic Lithium Production
Lithium has become one of the world’s most important critical minerals due to its central role in rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles, renewable energy storage systems, consumer electronics, and numerous advanced technologies.
Currently, much of the global lithium supply originates from major producing nations such as Australia and Chile, while a significant share of processing and refining capacity is concentrated in China.
To reduce dependence on foreign supply chains and improve national resource security, the United States has accelerated efforts to develop its own domestic lithium industry. Numerous exploration and development projects have emerged across the western United States, particularly in regions believed to contain significant lithium resources The new research suggests that geological potential alone may not be enough to ensure future production growth.
Lithium Mining Requires Significant Water Resources
One of the most overlooked challenges associated with lithium production is its substantial water demand. Regardless of the extraction method, lithium mining typically requires large volumes of water throughout the production process.
In lithium brine operations, companies pump mineral-rich brines from underground reservoirs to the surface. Through various extraction methods, lithium is separated from the brine before the remaining fluid is managed or reinjected. Hard-rock lithium mining operations also consume considerable amounts of water for ore processing, material washing, dust suppression, and equipment cooling. As global demand for lithium increases, so does concern about the industry’s long-term impact on regional water supplies, particularly in arid environments where water availability is already limited.
Researchers Examined Future Water Availability
To better understand the risks facing future lithium development, researchers from Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering conducted an extensive analysis of projected water supply and demand across potential mining regions.
The study was led by sustainability expert Jennifer Dunn, a professor of chemical and biological engineering and director of the Center for Engineering Sustainability and Resilience. The research team combined multiple scientific models to evaluate future water availability under different climate and economic conditions.
Their analysis incorporated:
- Five global climate models
- Four socioeconomic development scenarios
- Advanced hydrology simulations
- Projected water requirements for lithium mining operations
The researchers intentionally selected models representing a broad range of climate futures, including wetter, drier, hotter, and more moderate scenarios. By combining these projections, the team assessed how water resources may evolve between 2040 and 2060 across one active lithium mine in Nevada and 22 proposed lithium projects throughout the United States.
Most Proposed Lithium Projects Face Water Challenges
The results painted a concerning picture for the future of U.S. lithium production. Across nearly every climate scenario examined, many western U.S. watersheds struggled to meet existing water demands. Adding large-scale lithium mining operations would place further pressure on already stressed water systems.
Researchers found that numerous proposed projects could encounter significant water shortages as climate-driven changes reduce available supplies and competition from other sectors intensifies. Even under more favorable climate projections, water availability remained a major concern in several key lithium-producing regions. The findings suggest that future lithium development may be constrained not by resource availability beneath the ground, but by the amount of water available above it.
Nevada and California Face the Greatest Risks
Among the areas identified as most vulnerable were parts of Nevada and California’s Salton Sea region, both of which are considered strategically important for future lithium production. These regions host multiple proposed mining projects that would compete for limited water resources in landscapes already experiencing long-term drought conditions and growing water demand.
While sectors such as agriculture, municipal water systems, and residential consumption are expected to remain the largest users of water, lithium mining could still significantly increase overall pressure on local supplies. The concentration of multiple mining projects within the same watersheds creates additional challenges, as operators may find themselves competing for access to increasingly scarce resources.
Climate Change Adds New Uncertainty to Critical Mineral Supply Chains
The study highlights how climate change is becoming an increasingly important factor in the future development of critical mineral industries. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and prolonged droughts are expected to reshape water availability across large portions of the western United States during the coming decades.
As governments and industries push to secure supplies of lithium and other battery minerals, climate-related resource constraints could emerge as a major obstacle to achieving production targets. The research also underscores a broader challenge facing the global energy transition: many of the minerals needed for cleaner technologies require significant amounts of water to produce. Balancing climate goals with sustainable resource management will likely become one of the defining challenges of the critical minerals sector.
Innovation and Recycling Could Help Reduce Pressure
Researchers believe several strategies could help address future water shortages and improve the sustainability of lithium production. One key solution involves the development of more water-efficient extraction technologies, including advanced Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) systems that can reduce overall water consumption compared with traditional methods.
Improved project planning and more strategic site selection could also help direct future investment toward areas with stronger long-term water security. In addition, expanding lithium recycling infrastructure could reduce the need for newly mined material by recovering valuable battery metals from end-of-life products. Together, these approaches could help strengthen domestic lithium supply chains while minimizing environmental impacts.
A Critical Test for America’s Battery Future
The United States views lithium as a cornerstone of its future clean energy economy, supporting everything from electric vehicles and renewable power storage to advanced defense technologies.
Yet the Northwestern University study highlights a growing reality: access to critical minerals is increasingly tied to access to critical natural resources, especially water.
As climate pressures intensify and competition for water continues to grow, the success of America’s lithium strategy may depend not only on geology and investment but also on the ability to manage water resources sustainably.
For policymakers, mining companies, and technology manufacturers, the message is clear: securing the future of lithium production will require balancing resource development with environmental stewardship and long-term water resilience.
