Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are emerging as critical players in the global tungsten market, challenging China’s longstanding dominance. The surge in tungsten prices and China’s tightened export controls has intensified interest from governments and investors worldwide, especially the United States and Europe.
Tungsten’s strategic value is clear: it is essential for defense systems, aerospace alloys, cutting tools, and semiconductor manufacturing. NATO officially designated tungsten as one of 12 defense-critical raw materials in December 2024, and the US classified it as a “highest-risk” mineral in its 2025 Critical Minerals list.
Global supply remains concentrated: China produced over 80% of mined tungsten in 2024, while the US has not mined tungsten domestically since 2015, relying on imports and recycling. Prices have surged dramatically—Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) rose from around $340 per metric ton in early 2025 to over $1,100 in early 2026.
US and Chinese Investment Race in Central Asia
Kazakhstan has become a testing ground for non-Chinese tungsten production. A US-backed joint venture aims to develop the Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty deposits, described as among the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten resources. The project, supported by the US Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation, could provide 15% of global tungsten output. Production is expected to begin by 2029, pending approvals.
Meanwhile, China is already established. Jiaxin International Resources Investment, majority-owned by Jiangxi Copper, commercialized the Bakuta open-pit mine in 2025, producing 3.3 million tonnes of tungsten ore. Proximity to China and stable policy conditions have made Kazakhstan an attractive base for Chinese investors.
Uzbekistan is accelerating its efforts. The Turkish-owned K-Tungsten project in the Navoiy region has drilled over 60,000 meters since mid-2025 and aims for first production in 2028. Uzbekistan has revised subsoil legislation, prioritized strategic minerals, and launched a Technological Metals Complex to encourage local processing and global market integration. By 2030, Uzbekistan’s share of global tungsten extraction could reach nearly 15%, up from 0.005% in 2025.
Strategic Geopolitics and Supply Chain Implications
The US and China are both leveraging Central Asia as a source of critical minerals amid global competition. Cove Capital’s CEO Pini Althaus notes that while the US cannot match China’s dominance in processing, securing Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s tungsten is essential to diversifying supply chains.
China’s Hugo Qiu emphasizes Kazakhstan’s political stability, abundant resources, and good relations with China, the US, and Russia as key advantages for investors. Uzbekistan’s Temur Zokirov adds a pragmatic perspective: the country is open to all investors, prioritizing partners on a first-come, first-served basis while developing local processing capacity.
Risks and Challenges
Projects face significant hurdles:
- Harsh winters and infrastructure constraints may delay production.
- Capital expenditure escalation is a concern, particularly for drilling-intensive projects.
- ESG compliance and cross-border political dynamics must be managed, even for advanced Chinese-backed operations.
Despite these challenges, the upside is significant. If Kazakhstan captures a meaningful share of non-Chinese tungsten supply and Uzbekistan scales both mining and processing, Central Asia could supply a substantial portion of global tungsten within a decade, reshaping the global market while complementing, rather than replacing, China’s dominance.
Central Asia’s tungsten projects are not merely industrial undertakings—they are geopolitical and economic tests. They demonstrate how resource-rich nations can leverage strategic minerals, policy support, and foreign investment to assert influence in critical supply chains. As Western buyers increasingly pay premiums for secure, diversified tungsten sources, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have a historic opportunity: to redraw the global tungsten map and redefine their role in the high-stakes world of critical minerals.
